Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing contender and son of the former president, dominate recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote. Their combined support far exceeds that of trailing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, making them the near-certain pair to advance if no one secures an outright majority. The official campaign period opened in mid-August amid a tightening runoff matchup in surveys, with Lula holding modest edges in most head-to-head tests. Key variables include independent and women voters, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and lingering effects from earlier controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$475,220 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
90%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$475,220 Обс.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$218,672 Обс.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$47,095 Обс.
90%
Renan Santos
$11,342 Обс.
7%
Romeu Zema
$610 Обс.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Обс.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Обс.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,768 Обс.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Обс.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$64,965 Обс.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing contender and son of the former president, dominate recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote. Their combined support far exceeds that of trailing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, making them the near-certain pair to advance if no one secures an outright majority. The official campaign period opened in mid-August amid a tightening runoff matchup in surveys, with Lula holding modest edges in most head-to-head tests. Key variables include independent and women voters, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and lingering effects from earlier controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$475,220Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing contender and son of the former president, dominate recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote. Their combined support far exceeds that of trailing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, making them the near-certain pair to advance if no one secures an outright majority. The official campaign period opened in mid-August amid a tightening runoff matchup in surveys, with Lula holding modest edges in most head-to-head tests. Key variables include independent and women voters, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and lingering effects from earlier controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$475,220Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing contender and son of the former president, dominate recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote. Their combined support far exceeds that of trailing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, making them the near-certain pair to advance if no one secures an outright majority. The official campaign period opened in mid-August amid a tightening runoff matchup in surveys, with Lula holding modest edges in most head-to-head tests. Key variables include independent and women voters, economic measures like debt relief and fuel subsidies, and lingering effects from earlier controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro. The runoff, if required, is scheduled for October 25.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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