Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–40 percent support, with the balance split among several right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This fragmented field, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the absence of any dominant frontrunner, leaves both leaders far short of the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory. Traders therefore price an automatic runoff as the strongly favored outcome, consistent with Brazil’s historical pattern of second-round contests when multiple viable candidates remain in the race.