Recent polling averages place incumbent President Lula da Silva at 38-42% in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 contest, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-wing and centrist candidates including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Lula's position draws from his incumbency, recent debt-relief initiatives, and fuel-subsidy measures, while Flávio consolidates much of the Liberal Party base following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the former president's ineligibility. Flávio's earlier audio-related scrutiny and family tensions have stabilized after July reconciliation. Traders price the most likely first-round margins at 5-15% for Lula, reflecting consistent leads without decisive shifts in the fragmented field.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 41%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.7%
$323,244 Обс.
$323,244 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
41%
Lula da Silva <5%
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
5%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 41%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 5.7%
$323,244 Обс.
$323,244 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,152 Обс.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$26,821 Обс.
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$18,131 Обс.
41%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,689 Обс.
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$6,355 Обс.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,071 Обс.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,490 Обс.
5%
Renan Santos Victory
$210,825 Обс.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$3,532 Обс.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,155 Обс.
1%
Other
$5,022 Обс.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place incumbent President Lula da Silva at 38-42% in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 contest, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-wing and centrist candidates including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Lula's position draws from his incumbency, recent debt-relief initiatives, and fuel-subsidy measures, while Flávio consolidates much of the Liberal Party base following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the former president's ineligibility. Flávio's earlier audio-related scrutiny and family tensions have stabilized after July reconciliation. Traders price the most likely first-round margins at 5-15% for Lula, reflecting consistent leads without decisive shifts in the fragmented field.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$323,244Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling averages place incumbent President Lula da Silva at 38-42% in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 contest, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-wing and centrist candidates including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Lula's position draws from his incumbency, recent debt-relief initiatives, and fuel-subsidy measures, while Flávio consolidates much of the Liberal Party base following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the former president's ineligibility. Flávio's earlier audio-related scrutiny and family tensions have stabilized after July reconciliation. Traders price the most likely first-round margins at 5-15% for Lula, reflecting consistent leads without decisive shifts in the fragmented field.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$323,244Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages place incumbent President Lula da Silva at 38-42% in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 contest, ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-wing and centrist candidates including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. Lula's position draws from his incumbency, recent debt-relief initiatives, and fuel-subsidy measures, while Flávio consolidates much of the Liberal Party base following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the former president's ineligibility. Flávio's earlier audio-related scrutiny and family tensions have stabilized after July reconciliation. Traders price the most likely first-round margins at 5-15% for Lula, reflecting consistent leads without decisive shifts in the fragmented field.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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