Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow first-round edge in recent national surveys amid approval ratings near 44-47 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated much of the right-wing vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. This polarized contest in a crowded field—including figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—keeps the projected margin tight, with traders assigning the highest probability to Lula finishing less than five points ahead. Economic pressures, upcoming state-governor endorsements, and any fresh scandals or candidate withdrawals could shift vote consolidation and widen or narrow the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Обс.
$231,585 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
20%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%
$231,585 Обс.
$231,585 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Обс.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Обс.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Обс.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Обс.
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Обс.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Обс.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Обс.
16%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,567 Обс.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,707 Обс.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Обс.
<1%
Other
$2,258 Обс.
20%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow first-round edge in recent national surveys amid approval ratings near 44-47 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated much of the right-wing vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. This polarized contest in a crowded field—including figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—keeps the projected margin tight, with traders assigning the highest probability to Lula finishing less than five points ahead. Economic pressures, upcoming state-governor endorsements, and any fresh scandals or candidate withdrawals could shift vote consolidation and widen or narrow the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$231,585Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow first-round edge in recent national surveys amid approval ratings near 44-47 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated much of the right-wing vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. This polarized contest in a crowded field—including figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—keeps the projected margin tight, with traders assigning the highest probability to Lula finishing less than five points ahead. Economic pressures, upcoming state-governor endorsements, and any fresh scandals or candidate withdrawals could shift vote consolidation and widen or narrow the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$231,585Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow first-round edge in recent national surveys amid approval ratings near 44-47 percent, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has consolidated much of the right-wing vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. This polarized contest in a crowded field—including figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—keeps the projected margin tight, with traders assigning the highest probability to Lula finishing less than five points ahead. Economic pressures, upcoming state-governor endorsements, and any fresh scandals or candidate withdrawals could shift vote consolidation and widen or narrow the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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