**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 70.5% reflects the slow pace of Brazilian judicial processes against sitting senators and the early stage of current probes into Flávio Bolsonaro.** As of mid-June 2026, he faces an April-initiated Supreme Court-ordered Federal Police investigation into alleged defamation of President Lula via social media posts, with a standard 60-day initial inquiry window before any charging decision. Separate scrutiny centers on leaked May 2026 audio and messages showing requests for funding from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro (already jailed in a multibillion-real fraud case) for a Jair Bolsonaro biopic; authorities are assessing potential inclusion in related inquiries, but no formal charges or arrest warrants have been issued. Older matters, such as "rachadinhas" enrichment probes, have not produced rapid resolutions. Parliamentary immunity, the deliberate timeline of STF and Ministério Público actions, and the absence of imminent indictments or detention orders within the next few months support the market's assessment that charging or arrest by September 30 remains unlikely absent a major new development.