Flávio Bolsonaro, a sitting Brazilian senator and leading presidential candidate, remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged corruption, money laundering, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with key documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest warrants have been issued as of mid-September, and the narrow window to September 30 limits the scope for rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Senatorial status and standard procedural requirements for indictments create additional barriers in this compressed timeline ahead of the October election. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no action by the deadline reflects these structural and temporal constraints. Late developments, such as an expedited judicial order based on new evidence, could theoretically alter the outcome, though such steps are uncommon in the remaining days.