Flavio Bolsonaro’s selection of a vice-presidential running mate for the Liberal Party ticket in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election reflects limited centrist coalition support and a focus on party loyalty. Recent convention activity and public statements have elevated Alfredo Gaspar, aligning with his 57.5% market price, while figures such as Bia Kicis, Rosana Valle, and Damares Alves remain in contention around the low-40% range. The tight spread among multiple outcomes stems from ongoing negotiations within the PL, regional considerations, and uncertainty over formal confirmation ahead of the first-round vote. Upcoming party announcements or endorsements could consolidate probabilities further, though historical patterns in Brazilian ticket formation show late adjustments remain possible before ballots close.