Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September state election show Linke, CDU, AfD and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another, with Linke often edging ahead near 20 % and the others between 16–19 %. This narrow spread among the leading parties sustains tight implied probabilities for third place, where AfD holds a modest edge over Grüne and CDU according to trader consensus. The CDU’s candidate switch following the January power outage and AfD’s broader national gains have added volatility, while Grüne support has remained steadier but vulnerable to late shifts. Any final-week movement in turnout, coalition signaling or Berlin-specific issues such as housing and migration could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 25%
Linke 10%
$22,608 Обс.
$22,608 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
34%
Grüne
29%
CDU
25%
Linke
10%
SPD
9%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 25%
Linke 10%
$22,608 Обс.
$22,608 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Обс.
34%
Grüne
$3,681 Обс.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Обс.
25%
Linke
$4,578 Обс.
10%
SPD
$1,268 Обс.
9%
FDP
$674 Обс.
<1%
FW
$582 Обс.
<1%
BSW
$750 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September state election show Linke, CDU, AfD and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another, with Linke often edging ahead near 20 % and the others between 16–19 %. This narrow spread among the leading parties sustains tight implied probabilities for third place, where AfD holds a modest edge over Grüne and CDU according to trader consensus. The CDU’s candidate switch following the January power outage and AfD’s broader national gains have added volatility, while Grüne support has remained steadier but vulnerable to late shifts. Any final-week movement in turnout, coalition signaling or Berlin-specific issues such as housing and migration could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,608Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September state election show Linke, CDU, AfD and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another, with Linke often edging ahead near 20 % and the others between 16–19 %. This narrow spread among the leading parties sustains tight implied probabilities for third place, where AfD holds a modest edge over Grüne and CDU according to trader consensus. The CDU’s candidate switch following the January power outage and AfD’s broader national gains have added volatility, while Grüne support has remained steadier but vulnerable to late shifts. Any final-week movement in turnout, coalition signaling or Berlin-specific issues such as housing and migration could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Обсяг
$22,608Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September state election show Linke, CDU, AfD and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another, with Linke often edging ahead near 20 % and the others between 16–19 %. This narrow spread among the leading parties sustains tight implied probabilities for third place, where AfD holds a modest edge over Grüne and CDU according to trader consensus. The CDU’s candidate switch following the January power outage and AfD’s broader national gains have added volatility, while Grüne support has remained steadier but vulnerable to late shifts. Any final-week movement in turnout, coalition signaling or Berlin-specific issues such as housing and migration could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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