The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polling averages place the Linke first (around 20-22%), the CDU second (18-20%), and the AfD and Grüne clustered immediately behind (16-18% and 16-17%). This positioning makes third place the most contested slot, with trader pricing reflecting narrow gaps that could shift on turnout, undecided voters, or last-minute campaign effects. The AfD has shown volatility, leading some July surveys before settling into a tight battle with the Grüne, while the CDU’s candidate switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has stabilized its second-place standing without fully clarifying the order below. Smaller parties such as the SPD remain well back, and the sub-5% threshold for BSW and FDP further concentrates attention on the four-way squeeze among established contenders. With roughly four weeks remaining, any movement in the AfD-Grüne margin or a late CDU surge would most directly alter third-place probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 11%
$22,608 Обс.
$22,608 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
34%
Grüne
29%
CDU
24%
Linke
11%
SPD
8%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 24%
Linke 11%
$22,608 Обс.
$22,608 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Обс.
34%
Grüne
$3,681 Обс.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Обс.
24%
Linke
$4,578 Обс.
11%
SPD
$1,268 Обс.
8%
FDP
$674 Обс.
<1%
FW
$582 Обс.
<1%
BSW
$750 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polling averages place the Linke first (around 20-22%), the CDU second (18-20%), and the AfD and Grüne clustered immediately behind (16-18% and 16-17%). This positioning makes third place the most contested slot, with trader pricing reflecting narrow gaps that could shift on turnout, undecided voters, or last-minute campaign effects. The AfD has shown volatility, leading some July surveys before settling into a tight battle with the Grüne, while the CDU’s candidate switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has stabilized its second-place standing without fully clarifying the order below. Smaller parties such as the SPD remain well back, and the sub-5% threshold for BSW and FDP further concentrates attention on the four-way squeeze among established contenders. With roughly four weeks remaining, any movement in the AfD-Grüne margin or a late CDU surge would most directly alter third-place probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,608Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polling averages place the Linke first (around 20-22%), the CDU second (18-20%), and the AfD and Grüne clustered immediately behind (16-18% and 16-17%). This positioning makes third place the most contested slot, with trader pricing reflecting narrow gaps that could shift on turnout, undecided voters, or last-minute campaign effects. The AfD has shown volatility, leading some July surveys before settling into a tight battle with the Grüne, while the CDU’s candidate switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has stabilized its second-place standing without fully clarifying the order below. Smaller parties such as the SPD remain well back, and the sub-5% threshold for BSW and FDP further concentrates attention on the four-way squeeze among established contenders. With roughly four weeks remaining, any movement in the AfD-Grüne margin or a late CDU surge would most directly alter third-place probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Обсяг
$22,608Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20 features a fragmented field where recent polling averages place the Linke first (around 20-22%), the CDU second (18-20%), and the AfD and Grüne clustered immediately behind (16-18% and 16-17%). This positioning makes third place the most contested slot, with trader pricing reflecting narrow gaps that could shift on turnout, undecided voters, or last-minute campaign effects. The AfD has shown volatility, leading some July surveys before settling into a tight battle with the Grüne, while the CDU’s candidate switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal has stabilized its second-place standing without fully clarifying the order below. Smaller parties such as the SPD remain well back, and the sub-5% threshold for BSW and FDP further concentrates attention on the four-way squeeze among established contenders. With roughly four weeks remaining, any movement in the AfD-Grüne margin or a late CDU surge would most directly alter third-place probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання