Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition has advanced a package of tax, labor, and pension reforms in mid-2026, with the chancellor stating in July that the government has “found its footing” after earlier internal friction. Despite record-low personal approval ratings near 20 percent and AfD gains in national polling, no successful confidence vote, party revolt, or snap-election trigger has emerged to force his exit before year-end. Germany’s Basic Law requires either a Bundestag majority against the chancellor or a deliberate loss of confidence to dissolve parliament, mechanisms Merz has explicitly ruled out. Upcoming September state elections could test the coalition further, yet traders price an 82.5 percent probability he remains in office through 2026, reflecting the high institutional threshold for early removal absent a sudden collapse in parliamentary support.