Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDU 37%
AfD 32%
Linke 24%
Grüne 8%
$23,794 Обс.
$23,794 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
37%
AfD
32%
Linke
24%
Grüne
8%
SPD
3%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
CDU 37%
AfD 32%
Linke 24%
Grüne 8%
$23,794 Обс.
$23,794 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$3,211 Обс.
37%
AfD
$5,376 Обс.
32%
Linke
$5,880 Обс.
24%
Grüne
$4,186 Обс.
8%
SPD
$3,060 Обс.
3%
FDP
$686 Обс.
<1%
FW
$640 Обс.
<1%
BSW
$755 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,794Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Обсяг
$23,794Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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