Skip to main content
icon for First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?
Політика·Проміжні семестри

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?

icon for First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?
Політика·Проміжні семестри

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?

95% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
95% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.**Republican incumbent Rick Allen secured his party's nomination with an outright majority in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Democrat Ceretta Smith emerged from a June 16 runoff against Traci George.** Georgia's 12th district remains a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring the GOP and Allen's prior general-election margins exceeding 60 percent. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic opposition and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the November 3 general election will produce a first-round majority winner rather than advance to a runoff. The 94.5 percent implied probability for "Yes" reflects this durable partisan advantage and historical precedent in comparable safe districts.

The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
Обсяг
$298
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.**Republican incumbent Rick Allen secured his party's nomination with an outright majority in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Democrat Ceretta Smith emerged from a June 16 runoff against Traci George.** Georgia's 12th district remains a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring the GOP and Allen's prior general-election margins exceeding 60 percent. These structural factors, combined with limited Democratic opposition and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the November 3 general election will produce a first-round majority winner rather than advance to a runoff. The 94.5 percent implied probability for "Yes" reflects this durable partisan advantage and historical precedent in comparable safe districts.

The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
Обсяг
$298
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.

Пов'язане

icon for First Round Outright Winner in the GA-06 House Election?

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-06 House Election?

97%
icon for First Round Outright Winner in the GA-01 House Election?

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-01 House Election?

95%
icon for First Round Outright Winner in the GA-11 House Election?

First Round Outright Winner in the GA-11 House Election?

96%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 95% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 95¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 95%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Aug 14, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?» — 95% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 95% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.