Traders assign an 81.5 percent implied probability against U.S. federal charges against Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any Department of Justice indictment or formal announcement targeting the sitting leader. Recent U.S. actions have instead centered on preparing criminal charges against former president Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside expanded sanctions on Cuban military-linked entities. These steps intensify diplomatic and economic pressure on the regime while stopping short of proceedings against Díaz-Canel, where jurisdictional hurdles, lack of direct evidence links, and ongoing bilateral tensions create substantial barriers. Díaz-Canel’s public statements rejecting U.S. demands and his April 2026 media appearances have further reinforced trader expectations that no indictment will materialize in the remaining resolution window.