Google's May 19 I/O 2026 keynote, where Sundar Pichai explicitly stated Gemini 3.5 Pro would arrive "next month" after shipping the lighter 3.5 Flash variant, remains the dominant catalyst anchoring trader sentiment. With the current date at June 14 and no subsequent official updates or delays reported, the market assigns the highest implied probability (38.5%) to a June 30 release, followed by June 23 (22.5%), reflecting typical late-month cadence for major Gemini iterations and the need to close reasoning gaps observed in Flash benchmarks. The 17.8% on "no release by June 30" captures residual uncertainty around internal polishing of agentic and coding capabilities, while earlier June dates cluster below 5% each amid the absence of near-term catalysts like earnings or developer events. Traders appear to weigh Google's rapid 3.x iteration pattern against the risk of slippage common in frontier model launches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
June 30 39%
June 23 23%
No release by June 30 17.9%
June 26 6%
$116,331 Обс.
$116,331 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
June 14
1%
June 15
<1%
June 16
2%
June 17
1%
June 18
4%
June 19
<1%
June 20
1%
June 21
1%
June 22
5%
June 23
23%
June 24
4%
June 25
<1%
June 26
6%
June 27
<1%
June 28
1%
June 29
<1%
June 30
39%
No release by June 30
18%
June 30 39%
June 23 23%
No release by June 30 17.9%
June 26 6%
$116,331 Обс.
$116,331 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
June 14
$2,635 Обс.
1%
June 15
$1,939 Обс.
<1%
June 16
$3,411 Обс.
2%
June 17
$3,532 Обс.
1%
June 18
$2,597 Обс.
4%
June 19
$2,548 Обс.
<1%
June 20
$1,454 Обс.
1%
June 21
$1,501 Обс.
1%
June 22
$4,811 Обс.
5%
June 23
$4,536 Обс.
23%
June 24
$2,942 Обс.
4%
June 25
$2,351 Обс.
<1%
June 26
$3,446 Обс.
6%
June 27
$2,019 Обс.
<1%
June 28
$1,416 Обс.
1%
June 29
$1,805 Обс.
<1%
June 30
$6,487 Обс.
39%
No release by June 30
$18,206 Обс.
18%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's May 19 I/O 2026 keynote, where Sundar Pichai explicitly stated Gemini 3.5 Pro would arrive "next month" after shipping the lighter 3.5 Flash variant, remains the dominant catalyst anchoring trader sentiment. With the current date at June 14 and no subsequent official updates or delays reported, the market assigns the highest implied probability (38.5%) to a June 30 release, followed by June 23 (22.5%), reflecting typical late-month cadence for major Gemini iterations and the need to close reasoning gaps observed in Flash benchmarks. The 17.8% on "no release by June 30" captures residual uncertainty around internal polishing of agentic and coding capabilities, while earlier June dates cluster below 5% each amid the absence of near-term catalysts like earnings or developer events. Traders appear to weigh Google's rapid 3.x iteration pattern against the risk of slippage common in frontier model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 1, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$116,331Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 1, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's May 19 I/O 2026 keynote, where Sundar Pichai explicitly stated Gemini 3.5 Pro would arrive "next month" after shipping the lighter 3.5 Flash variant, remains the dominant catalyst anchoring trader sentiment. With the current date at June 14 and no subsequent official updates or delays reported, the market assigns the highest implied probability (38.5%) to a June 30 release, followed by June 23 (22.5%), reflecting typical late-month cadence for major Gemini iterations and the need to close reasoning gaps observed in Flash benchmarks. The 17.8% on "no release by June 30" captures residual uncertainty around internal polishing of agentic and coding capabilities, while earlier June dates cluster below 5% each amid the absence of near-term catalysts like earnings or developer events. Traders appear to weigh Google's rapid 3.x iteration pattern against the risk of slippage common in frontier model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$116,331Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 1, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's May 19 I/O 2026 keynote, where Sundar Pichai explicitly stated Gemini 3.5 Pro would arrive "next month" after shipping the lighter 3.5 Flash variant, remains the dominant catalyst anchoring trader sentiment. With the current date at June 14 and no subsequent official updates or delays reported, the market assigns the highest implied probability (38.5%) to a June 30 release, followed by June 23 (22.5%), reflecting typical late-month cadence for major Gemini iterations and the need to close reasoning gaps observed in Flash benchmarks. The 17.8% on "no release by June 30" captures residual uncertainty around internal polishing of agentic and coding capabilities, while earlier June dates cluster below 5% each amid the absence of near-term catalysts like earnings or developer events. Traders appear to weigh Google's rapid 3.x iteration pattern against the risk of slippage common in frontier model launches.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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