Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.9% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the top Elo score of around 1501 alongside multiple other Claude variants in the top five. Anthropic's rapid iteration—shipping major updates every two weeks in 2026, including April's Opus 4.7—has solidified its competitive edge in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, bolstered by surpassing OpenAI's $30 billion ARR with enterprise-focused adoption. Google trails at 16.5% amid anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O next week (May 19), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at #8 post its May release. Delays or underwhelming demos could preserve Anthropic's lead, though leaderboard volatility remains a risk.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯка компанія має найкращу модель ШІ наприкінці червня?
Яка компанія має найкращу модель ШІ наприкінці червня?
Anthropic 72.8%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,959 Обс.
$5,767,959 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
73%
17%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.8%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.6%
$5,767,959 Обс.
$5,767,959 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$823,423 Обс.
73%
$503,234 Обс.
17%
OpenAI
$330,115 Обс.
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 Обс.
3%
Meta
$127,160 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$293,662 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$361,027 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.9% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the top Elo score of around 1501 alongside multiple other Claude variants in the top five. Anthropic's rapid iteration—shipping major updates every two weeks in 2026, including April's Opus 4.7—has solidified its competitive edge in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, bolstered by surpassing OpenAI's $30 billion ARR with enterprise-focused adoption. Google trails at 16.5% amid anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O next week (May 19), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at #8 post its May release. Delays or underwhelming demos could preserve Anthropic's lead, though leaderboard volatility remains a risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,767,959Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.9% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the top Elo score of around 1501 alongside multiple other Claude variants in the top five. Anthropic's rapid iteration—shipping major updates every two weeks in 2026, including April's Opus 4.7—has solidified its competitive edge in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, bolstered by surpassing OpenAI's $30 billion ARR with enterprise-focused adoption. Google trails at 16.5% amid anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O next week (May 19), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at #8 post its May release. Delays or underwhelming demos could preserve Anthropic's lead, though leaderboard volatility remains a risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$5,767,959Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 72.9% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the top Elo score of around 1501 alongside multiple other Claude variants in the top five. Anthropic's rapid iteration—shipping major updates every two weeks in 2026, including April's Opus 4.7—has solidified its competitive edge in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, bolstered by surpassing OpenAI's $30 billion ARR with enterprise-focused adoption. Google trails at 16.5% amid anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O next week (May 19), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lags at #8 post its May release. Delays or underwhelming demos could preserve Anthropic's lead, though leaderboard volatility remains a risk.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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