Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May 2026 I/O announcement and later shifted into July, remain the dominant driver behind the 77% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. As of mid-August, the model continues internal and partner testing amid reports of performance shortfalls, while Google has instead shipped lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.6 Flash in July and early August. Traders appear to view the absence of a confirmed late-August launch window or developer conference catalyst as outweighing any potential surprise rollout, consistent with prior timeline slips and the company's emphasis on agentic Flash capabilities over the frontier Pro tier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 31 76.9%
August 31 10.8%
August 27 2.7%
August 24 2.2%
$257,402 Обс.
$257,402 Обс.
Aug 10, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 16
<1%
August 17
1%
August 18
<1%
August 19
2%
August 20
2%
August 21
<1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
<1%
August 24
2%
August 25
2%
August 26
2%
August 27
3%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
<1%
August 31
11%
No release by August 31
77%
No release by August 31 76.9%
August 31 10.8%
August 27 2.7%
August 24 2.2%
$257,402 Обс.
$257,402 Обс.
Aug 10, 2026
August 15
$2,302 Обс.
<1%
August 16
$2,262 Обс.
<1%
August 17
$3,672 Обс.
1%
August 18
$3,844 Обс.
<1%
August 19
$3,096 Обс.
2%
August 20
$2,654 Обс.
2%
August 21
$1,884 Обс.
<1%
August 22
$2,366 Обс.
<1%
August 23
$1,748 Обс.
<1%
August 24
$4,412 Обс.
2%
August 25
$5,319 Обс.
2%
August 26
$4,180 Обс.
2%
August 27
$8,517 Обс.
3%
August 28
$3,926 Обс.
1%
August 29
$4,464 Обс.
<1%
August 30
$2,074 Обс.
<1%
August 31
$6,300 Обс.
11%
No release by August 31
$45,778 Обс.
77%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May 2026 I/O announcement and later shifted into July, remain the dominant driver behind the 77% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. As of mid-August, the model continues internal and partner testing amid reports of performance shortfalls, while Google has instead shipped lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.6 Flash in July and early August. Traders appear to view the absence of a confirmed late-August launch window or developer conference catalyst as outweighing any potential surprise rollout, consistent with prior timeline slips and the company's emphasis on agentic Flash capabilities over the frontier Pro tier.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$257,402Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May 2026 I/O announcement and later shifted into July, remain the dominant driver behind the 77% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. As of mid-August, the model continues internal and partner testing amid reports of performance shortfalls, while Google has instead shipped lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.6 Flash in July and early August. Traders appear to view the absence of a confirmed late-August launch window or developer conference catalyst as outweighing any potential surprise rollout, consistent with prior timeline slips and the company's emphasis on agentic Flash capabilities over the frontier Pro tier.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$257,402Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Google's repeated delays for the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May 2026 I/O announcement and later shifted into July, remain the dominant driver behind the 77% market-implied probability of no release by August 31. As of mid-August, the model continues internal and partner testing amid reports of performance shortfalls, while Google has instead shipped lighter variants such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.6 Flash in July and early August. Traders appear to view the absence of a confirmed late-August launch window or developer conference catalyst as outweighing any potential surprise rollout, consistent with prior timeline slips and the company's emphasis on agentic Flash capabilities over the frontier Pro tier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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