Claude Opus 5's recent July 24 release drives the overwhelming trader consensus around its max-effort variant, with Anthropic positioning the model as near Fable 5 frontier intelligence on reasoning, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks at half the price and the same $5/$25 per million tokens as Opus 4.8. It quickly set new state-of-the-art marks on Frontier-Bench and GDPval-AA while outperforming Fable 5 on OSWorld and multiple coding arenas, becoming the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro. These confirmed capability jumps and efficiency gains explain why alternatives like Qwen variants or older Opus iterations hold minimal implied probability just weeks later, with no major competing releases disrupting the leaderboard in early August.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBest AI model on August 24?
Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-max 88%
claude-opus-5-high 6.4%
qwen3.8-max 4.5%
Other 4.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
88%
claude-opus-5-high
6%
qwen3.8-max
5%
Other
8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
1%
claude-opus-5-max 88%
claude-opus-5-high 6.4%
qwen3.8-max 4.5%
Other 4.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$1,750 Обс.
88%
claude-opus-5-high
$128 Обс.
6%
qwen3.8-max
$57 Обс.
5%
Other
$409 Обс.
8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$125 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's recent July 24 release drives the overwhelming trader consensus around its max-effort variant, with Anthropic positioning the model as near Fable 5 frontier intelligence on reasoning, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks at half the price and the same $5/$25 per million tokens as Opus 4.8. It quickly set new state-of-the-art marks on Frontier-Bench and GDPval-AA while outperforming Fable 5 on OSWorld and multiple coding arenas, becoming the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro. These confirmed capability jumps and efficiency gains explain why alternatives like Qwen variants or older Opus iterations hold minimal implied probability just weeks later, with no major competing releases disrupting the leaderboard in early August.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,469Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's recent July 24 release drives the overwhelming trader consensus around its max-effort variant, with Anthropic positioning the model as near Fable 5 frontier intelligence on reasoning, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks at half the price and the same $5/$25 per million tokens as Opus 4.8. It quickly set new state-of-the-art marks on Frontier-Bench and GDPval-AA while outperforming Fable 5 on OSWorld and multiple coding arenas, becoming the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro. These confirmed capability jumps and efficiency gains explain why alternatives like Qwen variants or older Opus iterations hold minimal implied probability just weeks later, with no major competing releases disrupting the leaderboard in early August.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$2,469Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5's recent July 24 release drives the overwhelming trader consensus around its max-effort variant, with Anthropic positioning the model as near Fable 5 frontier intelligence on reasoning, agentic coding, and long-horizon tasks at half the price and the same $5/$25 per million tokens as Opus 4.8. It quickly set new state-of-the-art marks on Frontier-Bench and GDPval-AA while outperforming Fable 5 on OSWorld and multiple coding arenas, becoming the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro. These confirmed capability jumps and efficiency gains explain why alternatives like Qwen variants or older Opus iterations hold minimal implied probability just weeks later, with no major competing releases disrupting the leaderboard in early August.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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