Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$84 Обс.
74%
Republican Party
$148 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$232Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$232Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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