Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOregon Senate Election Winner
Oregon Senate Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$3,648 Обс.
97%
Republican
$3,076 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,724Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$6,724Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Senator David Brock Smith in Oregon's November 3, 2026, Senate contest. Merkley secured the Democratic nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary, while Smith prevailed in a fragmented Republican field. All major nonpartisan forecasts classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Oregon's double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and statewide elections. Merkley's established record and substantial fundraising edge reinforce trader consensus around a 97 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or dramatic national political realignment would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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