Incumbent Republican Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the May 19 primary, supported by the seat’s entrenched R+14 partisan lean and consistent GOP control since 1981. Bentz’s $1.2 million campaign fund and established name recognition give him a clear edge over two Republican challengers focused on rural issues, while six Democrats remain divided in their own primary without notable fundraising or polling momentum. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of holding the seat in November, reflecting the district’s structural advantages and limited national attention on the race. A Bentz primary loss, a unified Democratic surge, or an unexpected national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOR-02 House Election Winner
OR-02 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,323 Обс.
91%
Democratic Party
$2,744 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the May 19 primary, supported by the seat’s entrenched R+14 partisan lean and consistent GOP control since 1981. Bentz’s $1.2 million campaign fund and established name recognition give him a clear edge over two Republican challengers focused on rural issues, while six Democrats remain divided in their own primary without notable fundraising or polling momentum. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of holding the seat in November, reflecting the district’s structural advantages and limited national attention on the race. A Bentz primary loss, a unified Democratic surge, or an unexpected national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,068Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the May 19 primary, supported by the seat’s entrenched R+14 partisan lean and consistent GOP control since 1981. Bentz’s $1.2 million campaign fund and established name recognition give him a clear edge over two Republican challengers focused on rural issues, while six Democrats remain divided in their own primary without notable fundraising or polling momentum. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of holding the seat in November, reflecting the district’s structural advantages and limited national attention on the race. A Bentz primary loss, a unified Democratic surge, or an unexpected national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$4,068Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Cliff Bentz maintains a commanding lead in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the May 19 primary, supported by the seat’s entrenched R+14 partisan lean and consistent GOP control since 1981. Bentz’s $1.2 million campaign fund and established name recognition give him a clear edge over two Republican challengers focused on rural issues, while six Democrats remain divided in their own primary without notable fundraising or polling momentum. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of holding the seat in November, reflecting the district’s structural advantages and limited national attention on the race. A Bentz primary loss, a unified Democratic surge, or an unexpected national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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