Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$24,585 Обс.
$24,585 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
5%
$24,585 Обс.
$24,585 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,057 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$16,528 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$24,585Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$24,585Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the 2026 race Solid or Safe Democratic. No competitive Republican has emerged for the November general election, leaving the outcome determined almost entirely by the June 23 Democratic primary among Ivey and several challengers. This structural advantage explains the 93 percent consensus probability for a Democratic winner. Only an unforeseen event—such as the incumbent’s withdrawal due to health or scandal followed by a deeply fractured primary—could open a narrow path for Republicans to contest the seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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