Recent polling from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst/WCVB shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 contest, reflecting a late surge after earlier surveys indicated a closer race. Markey's established base among progressive voters, combined with Moulton's positioning as a more moderate alternative, has contributed to the incumbent's widening edge in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary. The Boston Globe's endorsement of Moulton and ongoing debates on issues including affordability and immigration have not yet narrowed the gap. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices assigns substantial probability to outcomes outside the listed Markey margin bands, consistent with historical variability in primary turnout and the potential for final-week shifts in voter preferences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMassachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Markey 25–30% 29%
Markey 30–35% 29%
Markey 20–25% 29%
Markey 15–20% 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
25%
Markey 35–40%
20%
Markey 30–35%
29%
Markey 25–30%
29%
Markey 20–25%
29%
Markey 15–20%
28%
Markey 10–15%
26%
Markey 5–10%
24%
Markey <5%
23%
Moulton <5%
23%
Moulton 5%+
24%
Markey 25–30% 29%
Markey 30–35% 29%
Markey 20–25% 29%
Markey 15–20% 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
Markey 40%+
$0 Обс.
25%
Markey 35–40%
$0 Обс.
20%
Markey 30–35%
$0 Обс.
29%
Markey 25–30%
$0 Обс.
29%
Markey 20–25%
$0 Обс.
29%
Markey 15–20%
$0 Обс.
28%
Markey 10–15%
$0 Обс.
26%
Markey 5–10%
$0 Обс.
24%
Markey <5%
$0 Обс.
23%
Moulton <5%
$0 Обс.
23%
Moulton 5%+
$0 Обс.
24%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst/WCVB shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 contest, reflecting a late surge after earlier surveys indicated a closer race. Markey's established base among progressive voters, combined with Moulton's positioning as a more moderate alternative, has contributed to the incumbent's widening edge in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary. The Boston Globe's endorsement of Moulton and ongoing debates on issues including affordability and immigration have not yet narrowed the gap. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices assigns substantial probability to outcomes outside the listed Markey margin bands, consistent with historical variability in primary turnout and the potential for final-week shifts in voter preferences.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst/WCVB shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 contest, reflecting a late surge after earlier surveys indicated a closer race. Markey's established base among progressive voters, combined with Moulton's positioning as a more moderate alternative, has contributed to the incumbent's widening edge in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary. The Boston Globe's endorsement of Moulton and ongoing debates on issues including affordability and immigration have not yet narrowed the gap. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices assigns substantial probability to outcomes outside the listed Markey margin bands, consistent with historical variability in primary turnout and the potential for final-week shifts in voter preferences.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst/WCVB shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey leading Rep. Seth Moulton by 14 to 28 points among likely Democratic primary voters two weeks before the September 1 contest, reflecting a late surge after earlier surveys indicated a closer race. Markey's established base among progressive voters, combined with Moulton's positioning as a more moderate alternative, has contributed to the incumbent's widening edge in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary. The Boston Globe's endorsement of Moulton and ongoing debates on issues including affordability and immigration have not yet narrowed the gap. Trader consensus reflected in the market prices assigns substantial probability to outcomes outside the listed Markey margin bands, consistent with historical variability in primary turnout and the potential for final-week shifts in voter preferences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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