Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, consistent 60%+ general election margins since 2018, and strong GOP partisan lean evidenced by large Trump victories. Recent April fundraising reports highlight Smucker's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage over sole Democratic primary contender Nancy Mannion's $15,000, reinforcing structural barriers to a flip. With closed primaries on May 19 unlikely to produce surprises—Smucker faces no challengers—the market anticipates continuity barring a national Democratic wave, major scandal, or late recruitment, amid thin volume signaling high confidence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,008 Обс.
89%
Democratic Party
$808 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, consistent 60%+ general election margins since 2018, and strong GOP partisan lean evidenced by large Trump victories. Recent April fundraising reports highlight Smucker's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage over sole Democratic primary contender Nancy Mannion's $15,000, reinforcing structural barriers to a flip. With closed primaries on May 19 unlikely to produce surprises—Smucker faces no challengers—the market anticipates continuity barring a national Democratic wave, major scandal, or late recruitment, amid thin volume signaling high confidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,815Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, consistent 60%+ general election margins since 2018, and strong GOP partisan lean evidenced by large Trump victories. Recent April fundraising reports highlight Smucker's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage over sole Democratic primary contender Nancy Mannion's $15,000, reinforcing structural barriers to a flip. With closed primaries on May 19 unlikely to produce surprises—Smucker faces no challengers—the market anticipates continuity barring a national Democratic wave, major scandal, or late recruitment, amid thin volume signaling high confidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$2,815Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker dominates trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's Solid Republican Cook rating, consistent 60%+ general election margins since 2018, and strong GOP partisan lean evidenced by large Trump victories. Recent April fundraising reports highlight Smucker's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage over sole Democratic primary contender Nancy Mannion's $15,000, reinforcing structural barriers to a flip. With closed primaries on May 19 unlikely to produce surprises—Smucker faces no challengers—the market anticipates continuity barring a national Democratic wave, major scandal, or late recruitment, amid thin volume signaling high confidence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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