Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 91.5% implied probability in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by double-digit margins in recent cycles—and Rep. Mike Kennedy's dominant 78.7% win at the Utah GOP state nominating convention on April 25. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March retirement created an open seat amid redistricting, but Kennedy, shifting from the neighboring 3rd District with incumbency advantages and superior fundraising, solidified the GOP position. No public polls show competitiveness, underscoring historical base rates of safe Republican holds in Utah districts. Shifts could arise from a standout Democratic primary winner on June 23, a major GOP scandal, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$13,346 Обс.
$13,346 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$13,346 Обс.
$13,346 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,545 Обс.
92%
Democratic Party
$8,801 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 91.5% implied probability in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by double-digit margins in recent cycles—and Rep. Mike Kennedy's dominant 78.7% win at the Utah GOP state nominating convention on April 25. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March retirement created an open seat amid redistricting, but Kennedy, shifting from the neighboring 3rd District with incumbency advantages and superior fundraising, solidified the GOP position. No public polls show competitiveness, underscoring historical base rates of safe Republican holds in Utah districts. Shifts could arise from a standout Democratic primary winner on June 23, a major GOP scandal, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$13,346Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 91.5% implied probability in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by double-digit margins in recent cycles—and Rep. Mike Kennedy's dominant 78.7% win at the Utah GOP state nominating convention on April 25. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March retirement created an open seat amid redistricting, but Kennedy, shifting from the neighboring 3rd District with incumbency advantages and superior fundraising, solidified the GOP position. No public polls show competitiveness, underscoring historical base rates of safe Republican holds in Utah districts. Shifts could arise from a standout Democratic primary winner on June 23, a major GOP scandal, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$13,346Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Republicans a commanding 91.5% implied probability in Utah's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by the district's strong Republican lean—evidenced by double-digit margins in recent cycles—and Rep. Mike Kennedy's dominant 78.7% win at the Utah GOP state nominating convention on April 25. Incumbent Rep. Burgess Owens' March retirement created an open seat amid redistricting, but Kennedy, shifting from the neighboring 3rd District with incumbency advantages and superior fundraising, solidified the GOP position. No public polls show competitiveness, underscoring historical base rates of safe Republican holds in Utah districts. Shifts could arise from a standout Democratic primary winner on June 23, a major GOP scandal, or a national midterm wave favoring Democrats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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