Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but forecasts show Democrats positioned to gain ground due to the typical midterm penalty against the president's party. Recent redistricting changes in states including Virginia and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while generic ballot polling averages favor Democrats by several points. These factors, combined with Democratic advantages in individual-donor fundraising and a modest number of Republican-held seats viewed as vulnerable, explain why traders assign the highest probability to Republican totals below 190 seats. The spread across bins from 190 to 224 reflects ongoing uncertainty over turnout, primary outcomes, and any late shifts in national conditions that could narrow or widen Democratic gains.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.5%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Обс.
$234,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
27%
190-194
11%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
2%
Below 190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.5%
215-219 11.1%
$234,839 Обс.
$234,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$17,616 Обс.
27%
190-194
$8,513 Обс.
11%
195-199
$28,129 Обс.
12%
200-204
$22,115 Обс.
12%
205-209
$35,376 Обс.
10%
210-214
$12,841 Обс.
9%
215-219
$8,059 Обс.
11%
220-224
$53,714 Обс.
9%
225-229
$21,391 Обс.
3%
230+
$27,084 Обс.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but forecasts show Democrats positioned to gain ground due to the typical midterm penalty against the president's party. Recent redistricting changes in states including Virginia and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while generic ballot polling averages favor Democrats by several points. These factors, combined with Democratic advantages in individual-donor fundraising and a modest number of Republican-held seats viewed as vulnerable, explain why traders assign the highest probability to Republican totals below 190 seats. The spread across bins from 190 to 224 reflects ongoing uncertainty over turnout, primary outcomes, and any late shifts in national conditions that could narrow or widen Democratic gains.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$234,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but forecasts show Democrats positioned to gain ground due to the typical midterm penalty against the president's party. Recent redistricting changes in states including Virginia and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while generic ballot polling averages favor Democrats by several points. These factors, combined with Democratic advantages in individual-donor fundraising and a modest number of Republican-held seats viewed as vulnerable, explain why traders assign the highest probability to Republican totals below 190 seats. The spread across bins from 190 to 224 reflects ongoing uncertainty over turnout, primary outcomes, and any late shifts in national conditions that could narrow or widen Democratic gains.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$234,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority ahead of the November 2026 midterms, but forecasts show Democrats positioned to gain ground due to the typical midterm penalty against the president's party. Recent redistricting changes in states including Virginia and Missouri have altered several competitive districts, while generic ballot polling averages favor Democrats by several points. These factors, combined with Democratic advantages in individual-donor fundraising and a modest number of Republican-held seats viewed as vulnerable, explain why traders assign the highest probability to Republican totals below 190 seats. The spread across bins from 190 to 224 reflects ongoing uncertainty over turnout, primary outcomes, and any late shifts in national conditions that could narrow or widen Democratic gains.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання