SpaceX’s rapid iteration on Starship V3 has driven the 71% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Multiple 2026 flights, including Flight 13 in July, demonstrated consistent booster tower catches, an intact heat shield after demanding reentry, and the first recovery of a flown upper stage for post-flight analysis. Elon Musk stated in August that the initial Starship upper-stage reflight is targeted for late 2026 or early 2027, following planned tower-catch attempts and ongoing orbital refueling work. V3’s Raptor 3 engines, improved thermal protection, and faster test cadence have closed key technical gaps faster than prior versions, though sustained orbital operations, regulatory approvals, and repeated ship landings without major refurbishment remain near-term hurdles that could still shift timelines.