Strong second-weekend hold at roughly $144-145 million domestically has positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* for a steep third-frame decline, driving the 72% market-implied probability on a sub-$66 million result. The film’s $360 million opening and $655 million ten-day total reflect exceptional early audience demand, yet historical patterns for MCU tentpoles show accelerating drops after the initial surge, especially amid August competition and typical post-holiday softening. Traders appear to weigh the -60% second-weekend drop against likely further erosion to the mid-$50 million range, with only slim odds on 72 million-plus reflecting limited upside from sustained word-of-mouth or premium-format play. The next key catalyst is the August 14-16 actuals, which will confirm whether legs remain above or below recent superhero benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
<66m 72%
66-68m 19%
68-70m 19%
70-72m 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<66m
72%
66-68m
19%
68-70m
19%
70-72m
19%
72m+
3%
<66m 72%
66-68m 19%
68-70m 19%
70-72m 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<66m
$0 Обс.
72%
66-68m
$0 Обс.
19%
68-70m
$0 Обс.
19%
70-72m
$0 Обс.
19%
72m+
$160 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong second-weekend hold at roughly $144-145 million domestically has positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* for a steep third-frame decline, driving the 72% market-implied probability on a sub-$66 million result. The film’s $360 million opening and $655 million ten-day total reflect exceptional early audience demand, yet historical patterns for MCU tentpoles show accelerating drops after the initial surge, especially amid August competition and typical post-holiday softening. Traders appear to weigh the -60% second-weekend drop against likely further erosion to the mid-$50 million range, with only slim odds on 72 million-plus reflecting limited upside from sustained word-of-mouth or premium-format play. The next key catalyst is the August 14-16 actuals, which will confirm whether legs remain above or below recent superhero benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$160Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong second-weekend hold at roughly $144-145 million domestically has positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* for a steep third-frame decline, driving the 72% market-implied probability on a sub-$66 million result. The film’s $360 million opening and $655 million ten-day total reflect exceptional early audience demand, yet historical patterns for MCU tentpoles show accelerating drops after the initial surge, especially amid August competition and typical post-holiday softening. Traders appear to weigh the -60% second-weekend drop against likely further erosion to the mid-$50 million range, with only slim odds on 72 million-plus reflecting limited upside from sustained word-of-mouth or premium-format play. The next key catalyst is the August 14-16 actuals, which will confirm whether legs remain above or below recent superhero benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$160Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong second-weekend hold at roughly $144-145 million domestically has positioned *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* for a steep third-frame decline, driving the 72% market-implied probability on a sub-$66 million result. The film’s $360 million opening and $655 million ten-day total reflect exceptional early audience demand, yet historical patterns for MCU tentpoles show accelerating drops after the initial surge, especially amid August competition and typical post-holiday softening. Traders appear to weigh the -60% second-weekend drop against likely further erosion to the mid-$50 million range, with only slim odds on 72 million-plus reflecting limited upside from sustained word-of-mouth or premium-format play. The next key catalyst is the August 14-16 actuals, which will confirm whether legs remain above or below recent superhero benchmarks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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