Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in the November 3 general election, a rematch of the 2020 contest. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in the state's 2024 presidential results and multiple nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader expectations for a GOP victory. Hagerty ran unopposed in the August primary while Bradshaw secured her party's nomination; limited subsequent polling shows Hagerty ahead by roughly 20 points. The absence of major campaign developments or national shifts since then has kept implied probabilities concentrated on Republican margins in the 10-25 point range, with Democratic win shares remaining low. Factors that could alter separation include turnout patterns among key voting blocs or late-cycle national conditions affecting down-ballot performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTennessee Senate Election Margin of Victory
Tennessee Senate Election Margin of Victory
Republican 10-15% 19%
Republican 25-30% 17%
Republican 20-25% 16%
Democrat Wins 14.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
2%
Republican 40-45%
4%
Republican 35-40%
8%
Republican 30-35%
17%
Republican 25-30%
20%
Republican 20-25%
16%
Republican 15-20%
26%
Republican 10-15%
19%
Republican 0-10%
7%
Democrat Wins
14%
Republican 10-15% 19%
Republican 25-30% 17%
Republican 20-25% 16%
Democrat Wins 14.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
$131 Обс.
2%
Republican 40-45%
$207 Обс.
4%
Republican 35-40%
$187 Обс.
8%
Republican 30-35%
$402 Обс.
17%
Republican 25-30%
$340 Обс.
20%
Republican 20-25%
$1,251 Обс.
16%
Republican 15-20%
$245 Обс.
26%
Republican 10-15%
$401 Обс.
19%
Republican 0-10%
$80 Обс.
7%
Democrat Wins
$184 Обс.
14%
The 2026 Tennessee Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in the November 3 general election, a rematch of the 2020 contest. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in the state's 2024 presidential results and multiple nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader expectations for a GOP victory. Hagerty ran unopposed in the August primary while Bradshaw secured her party's nomination; limited subsequent polling shows Hagerty ahead by roughly 20 points. The absence of major campaign developments or national shifts since then has kept implied probabilities concentrated on Republican margins in the 10-25 point range, with Democratic win shares remaining low. Factors that could alter separation include turnout patterns among key voting blocs or late-cycle national conditions affecting down-ballot performance.
The 2026 Tennessee Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,427Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Tennessee Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in the November 3 general election, a rematch of the 2020 contest. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in the state's 2024 presidential results and multiple nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader expectations for a GOP victory. Hagerty ran unopposed in the August primary while Bradshaw secured her party's nomination; limited subsequent polling shows Hagerty ahead by roughly 20 points. The absence of major campaign developments or national shifts since then has kept implied probabilities concentrated on Republican margins in the 10-25 point range, with Democratic win shares remaining low. Factors that could alter separation include turnout patterns among key voting blocs or late-cycle national conditions affecting down-ballot performance.
The 2026 Tennessee Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,427Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty seeks a second term against Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in the November 3 general election, a rematch of the 2020 contest. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in the state's 2024 presidential results and multiple nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, underpins trader expectations for a GOP victory. Hagerty ran unopposed in the August primary while Bradshaw secured her party's nomination; limited subsequent polling shows Hagerty ahead by roughly 20 points. The absence of major campaign developments or national shifts since then has kept implied probabilities concentrated on Republican margins in the 10-25 point range, with Democratic win shares remaining low. Factors that could alter separation include turnout patterns among key voting blocs or late-cycle national conditions affecting down-ballot performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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