The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$872Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Обсяг
$872Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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