Recent small-bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia on May 1, illustrate the primary driver of current sentiment: sustained Fed funds rates at 4.25-4.50 percent continue to compress net interest margins for institutions holding longer-duration assets funded by short-term deposits. The FDIC’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes that unrealized securities losses have eased modestly yet remain elevated, while the problem-bank list stood at 60 institutions at year-end 2025, within historical norms. Weak fundamentals—rapid prior asset growth, declining capitalization, and rising past-due agricultural and commercial real estate loans—have been the dominant precursors in recent closures, with orderly FDIC handoffs limiting contagion. Traders are watching the June FOMC statement and upcoming quarterly filings for any signals of broader liquidity stress or accelerated supervisory tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$21,894 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
BMO
31%
Lloyds
29%
Deutsche Bank
8%
Scotiabank
8%
Santander
7%
UBS
7%
US Bank
7%
BNY
7%
RBC
7%
KeyBank
6%
Wells Fargo
6%
Bank of America
6%
BNP Paribas
5%
Morgan Stanley
5%
Citigroup
4%
Goldman Sachs
3%
JPMorgan Chase
2%
HSBC
1%
Truist
31%
$21,894 Обс.
BMO
$269 Обс.
31%
Lloyds
$5,776 Обс.
29%
Deutsche Bank
$672 Обс.
8%
Scotiabank
$0 Обс.
8%
Santander
$42 Обс.
7%
UBS
$90 Обс.
7%
US Bank
$18 Обс.
7%
BNY
$43 Обс.
7%
RBC
$104 Обс.
7%
KeyBank
$7,103 Обс.
6%
Wells Fargo
$23 Обс.
6%
Bank of America
$34 Обс.
6%
BNP Paribas
$111 Обс.
5%
Morgan Stanley
$157 Обс.
5%
Citigroup
$0 Обс.
4%
Goldman Sachs
$75 Обс.
3%
JPMorgan Chase
$264 Обс.
2%
HSBC
$363 Обс.
1%
Truist
$6,750 Обс.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia on May 1, illustrate the primary driver of current sentiment: sustained Fed funds rates at 4.25-4.50 percent continue to compress net interest margins for institutions holding longer-duration assets funded by short-term deposits. The FDIC’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes that unrealized securities losses have eased modestly yet remain elevated, while the problem-bank list stood at 60 institutions at year-end 2025, within historical norms. Weak fundamentals—rapid prior asset growth, declining capitalization, and rising past-due agricultural and commercial real estate loans—have been the dominant precursors in recent closures, with orderly FDIC handoffs limiting contagion. Traders are watching the June FOMC statement and upcoming quarterly filings for any signals of broader liquidity stress or accelerated supervisory tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$21,894Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia on May 1, illustrate the primary driver of current sentiment: sustained Fed funds rates at 4.25-4.50 percent continue to compress net interest margins for institutions holding longer-duration assets funded by short-term deposits. The FDIC’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes that unrealized securities losses have eased modestly yet remain elevated, while the problem-bank list stood at 60 institutions at year-end 2025, within historical norms. Weak fundamentals—rapid prior asset growth, declining capitalization, and rising past-due agricultural and commercial real estate loans—have been the dominant precursors in recent closures, with orderly FDIC handoffs limiting contagion. Traders are watching the June FOMC statement and upcoming quarterly filings for any signals of broader liquidity stress or accelerated supervisory tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$21,894Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 8, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank resolutions, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia on May 1, illustrate the primary driver of current sentiment: sustained Fed funds rates at 4.25-4.50 percent continue to compress net interest margins for institutions holding longer-duration assets funded by short-term deposits. The FDIC’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report notes that unrealized securities losses have eased modestly yet remain elevated, while the problem-bank list stood at 60 institutions at year-end 2025, within historical norms. Weak fundamentals—rapid prior asset growth, declining capitalization, and rising past-due agricultural and commercial real estate loans—have been the dominant precursors in recent closures, with orderly FDIC handoffs limiting contagion. Traders are watching the June FOMC statement and upcoming quarterly filings for any signals of broader liquidity stress or accelerated supervisory tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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