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Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$47,130 Обс.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$47,130 Обс.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$9,756 Обс.

38%

Google

$13,363 Обс.

31%

xAI

$5,588 Обс.

17%

Meta

$3,686 Обс.

14%

ByteDance

$2,202 Обс.

10%

DeepSeek

$2,067 Обс.

10%

Amazon

$1,313 Обс.

10%

Microsoft

$2,264 Обс.

10%

Alibaba

$500 Обс.

9%

Moonshot

$576 Обс.

9%

Z.ai

$956 Обс.

9%

Baidu

$581 Обс.

9%

Mistral

$2,625 Обс.

7%

Meituan

$1,653 Обс.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$47,130
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$47,130
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 14 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «OpenAI» з 38%, далі «Google» з 31%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» згенерував $47.1K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 30, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?», перегляньте 14 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» — «OpenAI» з 38%. Наступний — «Google» з 31%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.