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icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$119,657 Обс.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$119,657 Обс.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$22,548 Обс.

35%

Google

$17,193 Обс.

20%

Meta

$14,909 Обс.

13%

Alibaba

$3,366 Обс.

13%

xAI

$8,816 Обс.

13%

Moonshot

$6,686 Обс.

11%

Z.ai

$2,545 Обс.

9%

ByteDance

$2,876 Обс.

8%

DeepSeek

$20,581 Обс.

8%

Amazon

$2,787 Обс.

8%

Microsoft

$3,519 Обс.

8%

Baidu

$1,958 Обс.

7%

Meituan

$2,435 Обс.

6%

Mistral

$9,437 Обс.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 and related variants has driven recent leaderboard gains, with the model frequently claiming top intelligence scores on benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and composite quality indices through advanced reasoning modes. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3 series in multiple independent evaluations, though margins remain narrow as all three labs iterate rapidly on frontier large language models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in coding, multimodal tasks, and agentic workflows rather than marketing claims, with trader sentiment reflecting how these releases shift aggregated benchmarks before year-end. Further model updates or capability demonstrations from these companies represent key catalysts that could alter the market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$119,657
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 and related variants has driven recent leaderboard gains, with the model frequently claiming top intelligence scores on benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and composite quality indices through advanced reasoning modes. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3 series in multiple independent evaluations, though margins remain narrow as all three labs iterate rapidly on frontier large language models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in coding, multimodal tasks, and agentic workflows rather than marketing claims, with trader sentiment reflecting how these releases shift aggregated benchmarks before year-end. Further model updates or capability demonstrations from these companies represent key catalysts that could alter the market-implied odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$119,657
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 14 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «OpenAI» з 35%, далі «Google» з 20%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» згенерував $119.7K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 30, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?», перегляньте 14 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» — «OpenAI» з 35%. Наступний — «Google» з 20%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.