Leading AI labs continue releasing frontier models at a rapid clip, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant becoming ChatGPT’s default on May 5 and xAI rolling out Grok 4.3 the following day. These updates join Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 family in a tight performance cluster on public leaderboards, where margins on reasoning and coding benchmarks now sit within a few Elo points. U.S. government safety testing agreements covering Google, Microsoft, and xAI add another layer of scrutiny that could influence deployment timelines. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and year-end benchmarks that will determine which organizations hold the top spot by December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$14,200 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
76%
OpenAI
40%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,200 Обс.
$1,874 Обс.
76%
OpenAI
$3,368 Обс.
40%
xAI
$3,158 Обс.
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 Обс.
15%
Meta
$881 Обс.
14%
Z.ai
$82 Обс.
11%
DeepSeek
$440 Обс.
10%
Microsoft
$100 Обс.
10%
Alibaba
$0 Обс.
9%
Moonshot
$320 Обс.
9%
Baidu
$102 Обс.
9%
Amazon
$86 Обс.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 Обс.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Leading AI labs continue releasing frontier models at a rapid clip, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant becoming ChatGPT’s default on May 5 and xAI rolling out Grok 4.3 the following day. These updates join Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 family in a tight performance cluster on public leaderboards, where margins on reasoning and coding benchmarks now sit within a few Elo points. U.S. government safety testing agreements covering Google, Microsoft, and xAI add another layer of scrutiny that could influence deployment timelines. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and year-end benchmarks that will determine which organizations hold the top spot by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,200Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Leading AI labs continue releasing frontier models at a rapid clip, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant becoming ChatGPT’s default on May 5 and xAI rolling out Grok 4.3 the following day. These updates join Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 family in a tight performance cluster on public leaderboards, where margins on reasoning and coding benchmarks now sit within a few Elo points. U.S. government safety testing agreements covering Google, Microsoft, and xAI add another layer of scrutiny that could influence deployment timelines. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and year-end benchmarks that will determine which organizations hold the top spot by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$14,200Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Leading AI labs continue releasing frontier models at a rapid clip, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant becoming ChatGPT’s default on May 5 and xAI rolling out Grok 4.3 the following day. These updates join Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 family in a tight performance cluster on public leaderboards, where margins on reasoning and coding benchmarks now sit within a few Elo points. U.S. government safety testing agreements covering Google, Microsoft, and xAI add another layer of scrutiny that could influence deployment timelines. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and year-end benchmarks that will determine which organizations hold the top spot by December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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