Major U.S. banks hold elevated capital ratios and liquidity buffers, as confirmed by the latest Federal Reserve stress tests showing resilience under severe recession scenarios, underpinning the 91.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. Post-2008 reforms, including stricter capital rules and ongoing supervisory scrutiny, have lowered systemic vulnerabilities while current economic data reflect contained credit risks. Traders price in this stability with real capital at stake. That said, an abrupt downturn, sharp Treasury yield spike, or unforeseen regional bank contagion could still trigger stress and shift probabilities if capital erosion accelerates rapidly.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
9% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks hold elevated capital ratios and liquidity buffers, as confirmed by the latest Federal Reserve stress tests showing resilience under severe recession scenarios, underpinning the 91.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. Post-2008 reforms, including stricter capital rules and ongoing supervisory scrutiny, have lowered systemic vulnerabilities while current economic data reflect contained credit risks. Traders price in this stability with real capital at stake. That said, an abrupt downturn, sharp Treasury yield spike, or unforeseen regional bank contagion could still trigger stress and shift probabilities if capital erosion accelerates rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,023Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks hold elevated capital ratios and liquidity buffers, as confirmed by the latest Federal Reserve stress tests showing resilience under severe recession scenarios, underpinning the 91.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. Post-2008 reforms, including stricter capital rules and ongoing supervisory scrutiny, have lowered systemic vulnerabilities while current economic data reflect contained credit risks. Traders price in this stability with real capital at stake. That said, an abrupt downturn, sharp Treasury yield spike, or unforeseen regional bank contagion could still trigger stress and shift probabilities if capital erosion accelerates rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Обсяг
$4,023Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major U.S. banks hold elevated capital ratios and liquidity buffers, as confirmed by the latest Federal Reserve stress tests showing resilience under severe recession scenarios, underpinning the 91.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. Post-2008 reforms, including stricter capital rules and ongoing supervisory scrutiny, have lowered systemic vulnerabilities while current economic data reflect contained credit risks. Traders price in this stability with real capital at stake. That said, an abrupt downturn, sharp Treasury yield spike, or unforeseen regional bank contagion could still trigger stress and shift probabilities if capital erosion accelerates rapidly.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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