Recent small-bank failures, including five in 2026 with Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank closed on August 21, combined with the FDIC’s problem-bank list expanding to 52 institutions holding $66.3 billion in assets, underpin the 55% market-implied probability of at least one additional failure by December 31. Persistent commercial real estate losses and elevated interest-rate pressures on net interest margins and credit quality continue to weigh on smaller lenders, even as large banks demonstrated resilience in the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test. Traders are pricing in ongoing quarterly deterioration and potential catalysts from September–December earnings releases and economic data that could tip marginal institutions into resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено54% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
54% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including five in 2026 with Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank closed on August 21, combined with the FDIC’s problem-bank list expanding to 52 institutions holding $66.3 billion in assets, underpin the 55% market-implied probability of at least one additional failure by December 31. Persistent commercial real estate losses and elevated interest-rate pressures on net interest margins and credit quality continue to weigh on smaller lenders, even as large banks demonstrated resilience in the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test. Traders are pricing in ongoing quarterly deterioration and potential catalysts from September–December earnings releases and economic data that could tip marginal institutions into resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including five in 2026 with Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank closed on August 21, combined with the FDIC’s problem-bank list expanding to 52 institutions holding $66.3 billion in assets, underpin the 55% market-implied probability of at least one additional failure by December 31. Persistent commercial real estate losses and elevated interest-rate pressures on net interest margins and credit quality continue to weigh on smaller lenders, even as large banks demonstrated resilience in the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test. Traders are pricing in ongoing quarterly deterioration and potential catalysts from September–December earnings releases and economic data that could tip marginal institutions into resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank failures, including five in 2026 with Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank closed on August 21, combined with the FDIC’s problem-bank list expanding to 52 institutions holding $66.3 billion in assets, underpin the 55% market-implied probability of at least one additional failure by December 31. Persistent commercial real estate losses and elevated interest-rate pressures on net interest margins and credit quality continue to weigh on smaller lenders, even as large banks demonstrated resilience in the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 stress test. Traders are pricing in ongoing quarterly deterioration and potential catalysts from September–December earnings releases and economic data that could tip marginal institutions into resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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