Trader consensus around a 94.5% chance the US government avoids banning any open-source AI model this year rests on the administration’s explicit focus on closed-weight frontier systems and repeated policy signals favoring open-weight development. Recent Commerce Department rules and export frameworks have deliberately excluded open models from licensing or pre-release controls, while a House-passed Open-Source AI Leadership Act directs federal support for domestic open models and bars any ban or restriction. Temporary export curbs applied only to proprietary releases like Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable families, with quick reversals once safeguards were added. Primary catalysts ahead include further voluntary industry frameworks and potential state legislation, though a federal prohibition would require a sharp reversal of the current emphasis on US competitiveness versus China.