Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each attracting roughly 23–32 percent support across Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, and RedBridge surveys in July–August. This three-way split, combined with Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August passage of electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets, has created uncertainty over final seat tallies and preference flows. Traders assign Labor the strongest implied probability for second place behind the Coalition, reflecting consistent 2PP leads for the opposition and historical patterns of major-party seat outcomes, while One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable seat projections amid preference dynamics favoring the Coalition.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLabor 73%
Liberal–National 13%
One Nation 6%
Greens <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
73%
Liberal–National
13%
One Nation
6%
Greens
1%
Labor 73%
Liberal–National 13%
One Nation 6%
Greens <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$784 Обс.
73%
Liberal–National
$233 Обс.
13%
One Nation
$410 Обс.
6%
Greens
$208 Обс.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each attracting roughly 23–32 percent support across Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, and RedBridge surveys in July–August. This three-way split, combined with Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August passage of electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets, has created uncertainty over final seat tallies and preference flows. Traders assign Labor the strongest implied probability for second place behind the Coalition, reflecting consistent 2PP leads for the opposition and historical patterns of major-party seat outcomes, while One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable seat projections amid preference dynamics favoring the Coalition.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,634Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each attracting roughly 23–32 percent support across Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, and RedBridge surveys in July–August. This three-way split, combined with Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August passage of electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets, has created uncertainty over final seat tallies and preference flows. Traders assign Labor the strongest implied probability for second place behind the Coalition, reflecting consistent 2PP leads for the opposition and historical patterns of major-party seat outcomes, while One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable seat projections amid preference dynamics favoring the Coalition.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$1,634Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each attracting roughly 23–32 percent support across Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, and RedBridge surveys in July–August. This three-way split, combined with Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll and the August passage of electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets, has created uncertainty over final seat tallies and preference flows. Traders assign Labor the strongest implied probability for second place behind the Coalition, reflecting consistent 2PP leads for the opposition and historical patterns of major-party seat outcomes, while One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable seat projections amid preference dynamics favoring the Coalition.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
71%
Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
80%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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