Recent polling for Victoria’s November 2026 state election shows a tight three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter consistently near or above 23 percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus that One Nation will most likely finish third overall. Labor’s primary support has slipped in multiple surveys since mid-year, while One Nation has maintained momentum ahead of the appointment of its state leader in early August. Minor parties such as the Greens and others remain well behind on primary votes. Electoral reforms passed in August, including changes to Legislative Council voting, have not materially altered the primary vote dynamics captured in current surveys. Upcoming preference flows and final campaign shifts remain the main variables that could still reorder the top three.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
One Nation 81%
Labor 16%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
81%
Labor
16%
Liberal–National
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Greens
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Libertarian
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
One Nation 81%
Labor 16%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
$0 Обс.
81%
Labor
$4 Обс.
16%
Liberal–National
$0 Обс.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Обс.
4%
Greens
$0 Обс.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Обс.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Обс.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Обс.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 2026 state election shows a tight three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter consistently near or above 23 percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus that One Nation will most likely finish third overall. Labor’s primary support has slipped in multiple surveys since mid-year, while One Nation has maintained momentum ahead of the appointment of its state leader in early August. Minor parties such as the Greens and others remain well behind on primary votes. Electoral reforms passed in August, including changes to Legislative Council voting, have not materially altered the primary vote dynamics captured in current surveys. Upcoming preference flows and final campaign shifts remain the main variables that could still reorder the top three.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$4Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for Victoria’s November 2026 state election shows a tight three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter consistently near or above 23 percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus that One Nation will most likely finish third overall. Labor’s primary support has slipped in multiple surveys since mid-year, while One Nation has maintained momentum ahead of the appointment of its state leader in early August. Minor parties such as the Greens and others remain well behind on primary votes. Electoral reforms passed in August, including changes to Legislative Council voting, have not materially altered the primary vote dynamics captured in current surveys. Upcoming preference flows and final campaign shifts remain the main variables that could still reorder the top three.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$4Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Victoria’s November 2026 state election shows a tight three-way primary vote split among the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation, with the latter consistently near or above 23 percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus that One Nation will most likely finish third overall. Labor’s primary support has slipped in multiple surveys since mid-year, while One Nation has maintained momentum ahead of the appointment of its state leader in early August. Minor parties such as the Greens and others remain well behind on primary votes. Electoral reforms passed in August, including changes to Legislative Council voting, have not materially altered the primary vote dynamics captured in current surveys. Upcoming preference flows and final campaign shifts remain the main variables that could still reorder the top three.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
60%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
61%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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