Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a lead on two-party preferred measures against Labor (typically 52–55%), driven by the incumbent’s primary vote remaining stuck in the low-to-mid 20s even after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July. The leadership transition produced no measurable bounce, while voter concerns over state debt, infrastructure delivery, and crime continue to weigh on Labor. One Nation’s primary support has risen sharply into the low-to-mid 20s, fragmenting the vote and raising the possibility of upper-house influence, yet preference flows in most models still favor the Coalition forming government. With the 28 November election three months away, scheduled campaign events and further economic data releases remain the main near-term variables that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLiberal–National 62%
Labor 32%
One Nation 9%
Greens 3.2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
62%
Labor
32%
One Nation
9%
Greens
3%
Liberal–National 62%
Labor 32%
One Nation 9%
Greens 3.2%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$1,308 Обс.
62%
Labor
$271 Обс.
32%
One Nation
$53 Обс.
9%
Greens
$100 Обс.
3%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a lead on two-party preferred measures against Labor (typically 52–55%), driven by the incumbent’s primary vote remaining stuck in the low-to-mid 20s even after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July. The leadership transition produced no measurable bounce, while voter concerns over state debt, infrastructure delivery, and crime continue to weigh on Labor. One Nation’s primary support has risen sharply into the low-to-mid 20s, fragmenting the vote and raising the possibility of upper-house influence, yet preference flows in most models still favor the Coalition forming government. With the 28 November election three months away, scheduled campaign events and further economic data releases remain the main near-term variables that could shift these probabilities.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,732Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a lead on two-party preferred measures against Labor (typically 52–55%), driven by the incumbent’s primary vote remaining stuck in the low-to-mid 20s even after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July. The leadership transition produced no measurable bounce, while voter concerns over state debt, infrastructure delivery, and crime continue to weigh on Labor. One Nation’s primary support has risen sharply into the low-to-mid 20s, fragmenting the vote and raising the possibility of upper-house influence, yet preference flows in most models still favor the Coalition forming government. With the 28 November election three months away, scheduled campaign events and further economic data releases remain the main near-term variables that could shift these probabilities.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$1,732Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a lead on two-party preferred measures against Labor (typically 52–55%), driven by the incumbent’s primary vote remaining stuck in the low-to-mid 20s even after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier in late July. The leadership transition produced no measurable bounce, while voter concerns over state debt, infrastructure delivery, and crime continue to weigh on Labor. One Nation’s primary support has risen sharply into the low-to-mid 20s, fragmenting the vote and raising the possibility of upper-house influence, yet preference flows in most models still favor the Coalition forming government. With the 28 November election three months away, scheduled campaign events and further economic data releases remain the main near-term variables that could shift these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання