Toy Story 5’s June 19 domestic opening of roughly $160 million, the largest of 2026 to that point and a franchise record, has positioned it as the clear market leader for third-biggest debut. Subsequent tracking shows Spider-Man: Brand New Day delivering a substantially larger July 31 launch, while Avengers: Doomsday’s December holiday slot and early presales point to an even bigger finish. This ordering leaves Toy Story 5 with an 88.5% implied probability among traders. Lower-probability contenders such as Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping lack comparable early momentum or comparable scale, reinforcing the current consensus ahead of the remaining 2026 tentpoles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 89%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 4.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 4.0%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.7%
$13,535 Обс.
$13,535 Обс.
Toy Story 5
89%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 89%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 4.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 4.0%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.7%
$13,535 Обс.
$13,535 Обс.
Toy Story 5
89%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s June 19 domestic opening of roughly $160 million, the largest of 2026 to that point and a franchise record, has positioned it as the clear market leader for third-biggest debut. Subsequent tracking shows Spider-Man: Brand New Day delivering a substantially larger July 31 launch, while Avengers: Doomsday’s December holiday slot and early presales point to an even bigger finish. This ordering leaves Toy Story 5 with an 88.5% implied probability among traders. Lower-probability contenders such as Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping lack comparable early momentum or comparable scale, reinforcing the current consensus ahead of the remaining 2026 tentpoles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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