Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd congressional district toward a more Democratic-leaning profile ahead of the 2026 cycle, narrowing the prior Republican edge. In the June 2 top-two primary, incumbent Republican David Valadao received 40.7 percent while Democrat Randy Villegas advanced in second place at 32.4 percent, ahead of the other Democratic contender. Combined Democratic support exceeded 59 percent in the primary, and subsequent polling plus forecaster adjustments have reflected a competitive but Democratic-favored general election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus in this market assigns an 86 percent implied probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing, consistent with the district's structural changes and Valadao's exposure on recent policy votes in a Medicaid-heavy area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-22 House Election Winner
CA-22 House Election Winner
$12,192 Обс.
$12,192 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
15%
$12,192 Обс.
$12,192 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,239 Обс.
86%
Republican Party
$5,954 Обс.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd congressional district toward a more Democratic-leaning profile ahead of the 2026 cycle, narrowing the prior Republican edge. In the June 2 top-two primary, incumbent Republican David Valadao received 40.7 percent while Democrat Randy Villegas advanced in second place at 32.4 percent, ahead of the other Democratic contender. Combined Democratic support exceeded 59 percent in the primary, and subsequent polling plus forecaster adjustments have reflected a competitive but Democratic-favored general election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus in this market assigns an 86 percent implied probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing, consistent with the district's structural changes and Valadao's exposure on recent policy votes in a Medicaid-heavy area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,192Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd congressional district toward a more Democratic-leaning profile ahead of the 2026 cycle, narrowing the prior Republican edge. In the June 2 top-two primary, incumbent Republican David Valadao received 40.7 percent while Democrat Randy Villegas advanced in second place at 32.4 percent, ahead of the other Democratic contender. Combined Democratic support exceeded 59 percent in the primary, and subsequent polling plus forecaster adjustments have reflected a competitive but Democratic-favored general election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus in this market assigns an 86 percent implied probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing, consistent with the district's structural changes and Valadao's exposure on recent policy votes in a Medicaid-heavy area.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$12,192Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd congressional district toward a more Democratic-leaning profile ahead of the 2026 cycle, narrowing the prior Republican edge. In the June 2 top-two primary, incumbent Republican David Valadao received 40.7 percent while Democrat Randy Villegas advanced in second place at 32.4 percent, ahead of the other Democratic contender. Combined Democratic support exceeded 59 percent in the primary, and subsequent polling plus forecaster adjustments have reflected a competitive but Democratic-favored general election matchup on November 3. Trader consensus in this market assigns an 86 percent implied probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing, consistent with the district's structural changes and Valadao's exposure on recent policy votes in a Medicaid-heavy area.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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