SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026, combined with a targeted June roadshow and lead banks already in place, has driven the 99.3% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company is advancing toward a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation listing this summer after consolidating with xAI, while OpenAI remains in preliminary bank discussions without any SEC filing and eyes a possible late-2026 or 2027 window at roughly $1 trillion. Traders view these concrete regulatory and timeline milestones as decisive. Even at this high probability, last-minute delays from SEC review, broader market volatility, or shifts in SpaceX's Starship milestones could still allow OpenAI to accelerate and list first.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
SpaceX
$73,403 Обс.
$73,403 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
SpaceX
$73,403 Обс.
$73,403 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026, combined with a targeted June roadshow and lead banks already in place, has driven the 99.3% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company is advancing toward a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation listing this summer after consolidating with xAI, while OpenAI remains in preliminary bank discussions without any SEC filing and eyes a possible late-2026 or 2027 window at roughly $1 trillion. Traders view these concrete regulatory and timeline milestones as decisive. Even at this high probability, last-minute delays from SEC review, broader market volatility, or shifts in SpaceX's Starship milestones could still allow OpenAI to accelerate and list first.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Обсяг
$73,403Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026, combined with a targeted June roadshow and lead banks already in place, has driven the 99.3% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company is advancing toward a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation listing this summer after consolidating with xAI, while OpenAI remains in preliminary bank discussions without any SEC filing and eyes a possible late-2026 or 2027 window at roughly $1 trillion. Traders view these concrete regulatory and timeline milestones as decisive. Even at this high probability, last-minute delays from SEC review, broader market volatility, or shifts in SpaceX's Starship milestones could still allow OpenAI to accelerate and list first.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$73,403Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026, combined with a targeted June roadshow and lead banks already in place, has driven the 99.3% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company is advancing toward a potential $1.75–2 trillion valuation listing this summer after consolidating with xAI, while OpenAI remains in preliminary bank discussions without any SEC filing and eyes a possible late-2026 or 2027 window at roughly $1 trillion. Traders view these concrete regulatory and timeline milestones as decisive. Even at this high probability, last-minute delays from SEC review, broader market volatility, or shifts in SpaceX's Starship milestones could still allow OpenAI to accelerate and list first.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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