**Trader consensus reflects Blue Origin’s grounded New Glenn program following the May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion at LC-36.** That BE-4 engine oxygen-valve failure destroyed the stacked vehicle and heavily damaged the sole operational pad, forcing months of reconstruction that shifted operations to a hybrid horizontal-vertical integration approach. With pad repairs still underway and the company targeting a December return-to-flight rather than any October activity, no orbital launches, hot-fire tests, or New Shepard flights are scheduled in the remaining window. The 97% “No” probability captures this operational reality, though last-minute regulatory clearance for an unscheduled test or an unforeseen hardware check could theoretically introduce risk before month-end.