Trader sentiment for Argentina’s official USD exchange rate by end-2026 centers on the Central Bank’s managed crawling-band regime, which adjusts monthly in line with lagged inflation and currently places the spot rate near 1,400. With monthly inflation running around 2–3 percent and the band expanding at a comparable pace, the market-implied 38 percent probability on a close below 1,600 reflects expectations that continued disinflation and reserve accumulation will keep depreciation contained within a 15–20 percent annual range. Recent BCRA interventions to rebuild reserves, coupled with IMF-supported debt management and the absence of major fiscal slippage, reinforce this outlook, while any acceleration in regulated-price adjustments or renewed capital outflows could push the rate into the 1,600–1,700 corridor that traders assign a 21.5 percent chance.