Recent inflation readings near the midpoint of the Bank of Israel’s 1–3% target range, combined with the central bank’s established easing bias after the January 25-basis-point reduction to 4.00%, have anchored trader expectations for a cut at the May 25 decision. The March hold reflected a temporary pause amid energy-driven CPI pressures and geopolitical tensions rather than a shift in policy stance, with one-year inflation expectations now stabilized near 1.5–2.0%. Market-implied odds of 80% for a decrease price in resilient but non-inflationary growth and the staff forecast of 1.7–2.2% inflation for 2026, positioning the Monetary Committee to resume gradual easing toward its 3.5% base case. April CPI data, due shortly, remains the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or temper this consensus.