The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, 2026, amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff uncertainty, underpins the closely balanced 53.5% market-implied odds of at least one rate hike this year. Traders weigh the risk that sustained oil-driven inflation could force modest tightening against forecasts for subdued GDP growth near 1.2% and resilient but not overheating labor conditions. Money markets price in limited movement through mid-year, with potential shifts hinging on the June 10 announcement and the July Monetary Policy Report. Any clearer signals on whether higher energy costs become embedded in core inflation measures could decisively tilt sentiment toward or away from a 2026 hike.