Elevated inflation, which accelerated to 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76.5%. Headline and core measures continue to exceed the 2–4% target range amid wage indexation, minimum-wage effects, and supply pressures, prompting the central bank to hold its policy rate at 12% through recent decisions. Recent data reinforce this hawkish tilt, while the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike narrows interest-rate differentials without materially shifting BanRep’s stance. Traders price only modest probabilities of a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting limited scope for easing or further tightening before clearer disinflation signals emerge. The next inflation release and September 30 policy decision will provide key updates ahead of the October meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 77%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
12%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$315 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$993 KL.
7%
No change
$2,562 KL.
77%
25 bps increase
$578 KL.
12%
50+ bps increase
$856 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated inflation, which accelerated to 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76.5%. Headline and core measures continue to exceed the 2–4% target range amid wage indexation, minimum-wage effects, and supply pressures, prompting the central bank to hold its policy rate at 12% through recent decisions. Recent data reinforce this hawkish tilt, while the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike narrows interest-rate differentials without materially shifting BanRep’s stance. Traders price only modest probabilities of a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting limited scope for easing or further tightening before clearer disinflation signals emerge. The next inflation release and September 30 policy decision will provide key updates ahead of the October meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,304Ngày kết thúc
Oct 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated inflation, which accelerated to 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76.5%. Headline and core measures continue to exceed the 2–4% target range amid wage indexation, minimum-wage effects, and supply pressures, prompting the central bank to hold its policy rate at 12% through recent decisions. Recent data reinforce this hawkish tilt, while the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike narrows interest-rate differentials without materially shifting BanRep’s stance. Traders price only modest probabilities of a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting limited scope for easing or further tightening before clearer disinflation signals emerge. The next inflation release and September 30 policy decision will provide key updates ahead of the October meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$5,304Ngày kết thúc
Oct 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, which accelerated to 6.24% year-over-year in August 2026, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting, with market-implied odds at 76.5%. Headline and core measures continue to exceed the 2–4% target range amid wage indexation, minimum-wage effects, and supply pressures, prompting the central bank to hold its policy rate at 12% through recent decisions. Recent data reinforce this hawkish tilt, while the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike narrows interest-rate differentials without materially shifting BanRep’s stance. Traders price only modest probabilities of a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting limited scope for easing or further tightening before clearer disinflation signals emerge. The next inflation release and September 30 policy decision will provide key updates ahead of the October meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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