Recent polling in both open 2026 Senate contests shows Michigan’s race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers consistently tighter than New Hampshire’s matchup between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. Michigan surveys through late September average El-Sayed ahead by roughly three to five points, with multiple results inside the margin of error and frequent ties or one-point gaps. New Hampshire aggregates place Pappas ahead by five to six points across recent University of New Hampshire, Siena, and Trafalgar surveys. Both races feature retiring Democratic incumbents and contested primaries that resolved weeks earlier, yet Michigan’s narrower spreads and higher share of toss-up or lean-D ratings from forecasters have driven trader consensus that it will finish closer on November 3.