Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not be arrested before 2027 because ongoing STF inquiries into alleged money laundering linked to online betting firms and film financing remain at the investigative stage without formal charges or arrest warrants. Recent developments include a late-October 2026 Supreme Court order to surrender passports after the presidential election defeat, which he violated by departing Brazil, yet authorities have issued only precautionary restrictions rather than detention. The senator’s Senate mandate and privileged forum extend into early 2027, with cases expected to continue under current jurisprudence even after its end. Brazilian judicial timelines for high-profile inquiries typically involve extended evidence gathering, and his location abroad further reduces near-term enforcement prospects. An arrest could still occur if prosecutors request and obtain preventive detention for noncompliance or new evidence emerges within the narrow window.