**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.** Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
Kansas 45%
Iowa 31%
Nebraska 29%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Kansas
45%
Iowa
31%
Nebraska
29%
Kansas 45%
Iowa 31%
Nebraska 29%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Kansas
$26 KL.
45%
Iowa
$0 KL.
31%
Nebraska
$0 KL.
29%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.**
Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.**
Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$6Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Kansas leads as the GOP's most vulnerable Great Plains Senate seat at 41% market probability, followed by Iowa at 30.5% and Nebraska at 29%.** Economic pressures from tariffs, elevated fertilizer and fuel costs tied to international conflicts, and delays in a new farm bill have weighed on Republican incumbents and candidates across these agricultural states. In Kansas, incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor viewed as a credible centrist nominee; recent polls show Marshall ahead by low single digits, prompting some forecasters to shift the race from Safe to Likely Republican. Iowa's open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a toss-up rated contest, with tight polling reflecting similar farm-belt headwinds. Nebraska's Pete Ricketts holds a narrower edge over independent Dan Osborn, whose prior strong performance keeps the race in play but benefits from the incumbent's resources. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and candidate dynamics heading into November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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