Trader consensus reflects the strong scientific consensus that hantavirus lacks pandemic potential, with the market-implied odds for "No" at 97.5% driven by official CDC and WHO assessments of the 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship. That limited outbreak produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths through close-contact transmission, with an R0 around 1.2, after which 42-day quarantines and contact tracing ended with no sustained community spread or U.S. cases. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; the Andes strain's rare human-to-human capability still requires prolonged exposure and has not evolved efficient airborne or asymptomatic spread. While a mutation enabling broader transmission remains a theoretical risk, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate no realistic pathway to pandemic thresholds by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3% khả năng
$18,244,917 KL.
$18,244,917 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$18,244,917 KL.
$18,244,917 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the strong scientific consensus that hantavirus lacks pandemic potential, with the market-implied odds for "No" at 97.5% driven by official CDC and WHO assessments of the 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship. That limited outbreak produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths through close-contact transmission, with an R0 around 1.2, after which 42-day quarantines and contact tracing ended with no sustained community spread or U.S. cases. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; the Andes strain's rare human-to-human capability still requires prolonged exposure and has not evolved efficient airborne or asymptomatic spread. While a mutation enabling broader transmission remains a theoretical risk, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate no realistic pathway to pandemic thresholds by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Khối lượng
$18,244,917Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the strong scientific consensus that hantavirus lacks pandemic potential, with the market-implied odds for "No" at 97.5% driven by official CDC and WHO assessments of the 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship. That limited outbreak produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths through close-contact transmission, with an R0 around 1.2, after which 42-day quarantines and contact tracing ended with no sustained community spread or U.S. cases. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; the Andes strain's rare human-to-human capability still requires prolonged exposure and has not evolved efficient airborne or asymptomatic spread. While a mutation enabling broader transmission remains a theoretical risk, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate no realistic pathway to pandemic thresholds by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$18,244,917Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the strong scientific consensus that hantavirus lacks pandemic potential, with the market-implied odds for "No" at 97.5% driven by official CDC and WHO assessments of the 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship. That limited outbreak produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths through close-contact transmission, with an R0 around 1.2, after which 42-day quarantines and contact tracing ended with no sustained community spread or U.S. cases. Hantaviruses are primarily rodent-borne zoonoses; the Andes strain's rare human-to-human capability still requires prolonged exposure and has not evolved efficient airborne or asymptomatic spread. While a mutation enabling broader transmission remains a theoretical risk, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate no realistic pathway to pandemic thresholds by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp