Official meteorological observations confirm Beijing reached a maximum temperature of 21°C on October 12, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain implied probability for that outcome. This reflects surface station data showing a clear drop from prior warmth, consistent with cold air advection and increased northerly winds that suppressed afternoon heating under mostly cloudy skies with light scattered showers. Historical climatology places the long-term average high near 20°C for the date, making 21°C a typical seasonal value rather than an anomaly. Scenarios that could realistically shift the recorded high include post-event quality-control revisions to station readings or discrepancies in how "highest temperature" is defined across networks, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary data are validated.