**Trader sentiment for Buenos Aires’s June 27 maximum temperature reflects modest forecast spread across 15–17 °C, with 16 °C and 17 °C attracting the largest shares (37.5 % and 32.5 %).** Wintertime conditions in the Río de la Plata region are governed by the passage of cold fronts and the strength of northerly advection ahead of them; current model consensus from global ensembles points to mostly sunny skies and light northerly flow that should allow modest daytime warming from overnight lows near 10 °C. Small differences in the timing of any weak frontal boundary or in boundary-layer mixing can shift the afternoon peak by 1–2 °C, explaining why probabilities remain closely bunched rather than concentrated on a single outcome. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and latest ECMWF/GFS runs both support a central tendency near 15–16 °C, while historical June maxima average ~15.5 °C. Updated model runs and the 27 June midday observation will be the key near-term catalysts.