**Official observations from Houston-area stations, including George Bush Intercontinental and Ellington Field, recorded a daily maximum temperature of 88–89°F on October 1, 2026, driving the market’s near-certain consensus on that bin.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms—common under the prevailing moist southerly flow—limited daytime heating and kept readings below the seasonal average high of ~86°F while preventing spikes toward the 90s seen in drier analogs. National Weather Service data and model analyses confirm these conditions suppressed peak values, aligning trader positioning with verified measurements rather than pre-event forecasts that had allowed for slightly higher outcomes. Only an unexpected station-specific revision or reclassification of the reporting network could realistically shift the result, though such changes are rare once preliminary data are finalized.