Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a cool, unsettled pattern for Buenos Aires on October 3, with a northeasterly flow advecting moist air ahead of a frontal system, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain or showers that limit daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustering near 16–18 °C, aligning with the market’s tightest probabilities on those outcomes, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation suppress the seasonal climb toward the long-term early-October average of roughly 22 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest because steering winds and boundary-layer moisture are well-resolved only 48 hours out, though any faster clearing or stronger southerly advection could push readings toward 19 °C while persistent low stratus would anchor them near 15 °C. Updated model runs and official guidance issued over the next 24 hours will provide the key data points for refining these temperature thresholds.